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Deep dives into daily movement or stocks worth keeping on the radar over longer timeframes
Broadcom slips on Q3 results that underperform expectations following blowout NVDA results
Broadcom (AVGO) trades modestly lower today despite reporting robust fiscal 2Q25 results, with adjusted EPS of $1.58 on revenue of $15.0 billion—each topping consensus estimates as its AI-driven segments continue to accelerate. Even so, shares slipped about 2–3 percent in after-hours trading, reflecting the market’s high bar for AI growth. AVGO is up roughly 12 percent year-to-date and remains near all-time highs, as investors weigh whether its AI momentum can sustain at such peak valuations.
Broadcom’s performance underscores a balanced portfolio: semiconductor solutions revenue of $8.4 billion and an infrastructure-software segment (anchored by VMware) bringing in $6.6 billion—both posting double-digit year-over-year gains. Management also reiterated 3Q guidance of approximately $15.8 billion in revenue—essentially matching Wall Street’s forecast—with AI-related sales expected to climb to $5.1 billion. Even as Broadcom pours capital into next-generation AI products, it expects adjusted EBITDA margins of at least 66 percent, signaling disciplined cost control.
• AVGO posted 2Q25 adj. EPS of $1.58 on $15.0 billion in revenue (+20 percent yr/yr), slightly above expectations of $1.57 and $14.96 billion. AI-related chip sales jumped 46 percent yr/yr to $4.4 billion, highlighting sustained demand for networking solutions in large models and data centers.
o The semiconductor-solutions division generated $8.4 billion (+16.7 percent yr/yr), driven by early traction for the 102 Tbps Tomahawk 6 Ethernet switch, which doubles throughput for hyperscale customers.
o Infrastructure-software (anchored by VMware) contributed $6.6 billion (+25 percent yr/yr) as enterprise cloud migrations and subscription transitions accelerate.
• For 3Q25, AVGO guided to ≈ $15.8 billion in revenue—essentially in line with consensus—while forecasting AI-related revenue of $5.1 billion, up from $4.4 billion in 2Q.
o Management reiterated an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 66 percent, indicating that cost discipline remains strong even amid heavy AI-related R&D and capital investment.
• The AI flywheel remains intact: CEO Hock Tan emphasized that AI networking already represents ~40 percent of AI revenue, and that three hyperscale customers plan to deploy 1 million-node custom AI accelerator clusters by 2027, underpinning confident long-term growth.
• Stock reaction and sentiment: Despite beating expectations, AVGO shares fell ~2–3 percent after hours, illustrating a “sell-the-news” dynamic. The stock remains up roughly 12 percent YTD, and J.P. Morgan recently reiterated an Overweight rating with a $250 price target, citing sustained AI traction and robust free cash flow.
• Valuation considerations: Trading near all-time highs, AVGO’s forward P/E (FY 2025) sits above 40×, reflecting the market’s willingness to pay for AI leverage—but also posing risks if enterprise or handset demand softens. Institutional investors may be wary of limited upside if AI spending growth slows.
In conclusion, Broadcom’s 2Q25 results reinforce its position as a bellwether in AI infrastructure. Record revenue, strong AI segment growth, and a resilient margin profile argue for continued outperformance—especially if macro conditions remain stable. However, with shares trading near peak valuations and guidance already well anticipated, investors should be prepared for potential volatility if AI spend falters or non-AI silicon markets weaken.
A pullback toward the low-$250 range could offer an attractive entry point. Over the next 12 months, if Broadcom continues to ramp its Tomahawk 6 deployments, convert VMware customers to subscription models, and demonstrate further margin expansion, there is a path to mid-$290s (high-teens percentage upside). Accordingly, we recommend a Buy on any meaningful weakness, while monitoring design-win announcements, AI networking trends, and macro demand signals.
Dollar Tree is shaking off the dust, boasts solid gains following Q1 results
In Q1 2025, Dollar Tree reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26 on revenue of $4.64 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.21 EPS and $4.53 billion in revenue. Comparable store sales increased by 5.4%, driven by a notable uptick in traffic from households earning over $100,000 annually.
The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $5.15 to $5.65, up from the previous $5.00 to $5.50, citing reduced freight costs and steady demand for low-cost essentials. However, Dollar Tree anticipates a significant decline in Q2 adjusted profit, projecting a drop of up to 50% compared to the previous year due to ongoing tariff uncertainties.
In a strategic move, Dollar Tree announced the sale of its Family Dollar brand to private-equity firms Brigade Capital Management and Macellum Capital Management for $1 billion, expected to close in the second quarter. This divestiture allows Dollar Tree to focus on its core brand, which has been performing strongly, with a 5.4% increase in same-store sales during the quarter.
Despite near-term challenges from tariffs, Dollar Tree's strategic initiatives and strong performance in its core business have instilled confidence among investors, reflected in today's stock price increase. However, given the Q2 profit headwind due to tariffs, DLTR may trade sideways (or even pull back) as investors digest the impact on margins. If you’re looking for a short‐term trade, be prepared for potential volatility around ongoing tariff developments—especially if Congress or administration policies shift unilaterally.
Dollar General sees fresh dollars today following solid Q1 results
Dollar General (DG) is beginning to see investors allocate dollars back to its stock today after the discount chain announced it would close nearly 100 Dollar General locations and 45 pOpshelf sites while converting six pOpshelf stores to Dollar General stores. The review cost DG significantly in Q4 (Jan), clipping approximately $0.81 off EPS. However, in Q1 (ended Apr), DG posted EPS of $1.78, surpassing analysts’ $1.47 consensus, and net sales rose 5.0% yr/yr to $10.44 bn, with same-store sales up 2.4%—nearly double the 1.22% projection. Meanwhile, by excluding the prior portfolio-review charge, DG outperformed its previously lowered FY 25 outlook.
The retailer has been revamping thousands of stores, aiming to make them cleaner and more convenient. Alongside plans to fully remodel around 2,000 additional stores this year, CEO Todd Vasos announced last quarter that around 2,250 additional locations would undergo a lighter remodeling—adding produce and updating assortments. The move has not been without its costs; DG plans to maintain spending at a similar rate over the next five years as it did in FY 25 at roughly 3% of net sales.
• Refreshes driving growth. Mr. Vasos noted that Q1 same-store sales of +2.4% were driven by a lift in basket size and continued traffic resilience, underscoring early benefits of the “DG Fresh” and Project Elevate initiatives.
• Operating leverage emerging. Net income climbed to $391.9 mm (+7.9% yr/yr), even as DG absorbed incremental costs from remodels and the lingering effects of the Q4 charge.
• Consumer wallet pressure persists. Management reiterated that many shoppers remain “only able to afford essentials,” and Vasos said he does not expect material relief this year, as inflation-driven trade-down trends continue.
o Tariff risk managed. DG affirmed it can mitigate much of the “highly dynamic” tariff pressure—citing its 2018–19 playbook—but flagged ongoing uncertainty around potential changes to SNAP and other entitlement programs.
• Raised FY 25 outlook. Following Q1, DG now guides to EPS $5.20–5.80, net-sales growth +3.7–4.7%, and same-store sales +1.5–2.5% (previously +3.4–4.4% and +1.2–2.2%). Longer-term, DG reiterated its five-year targets of sales CAGR +3.5–4.0%, SSS +2–3%, EPS CAGR +6–7%, and ~2% annual new-unit growth.
A barrage of stubborn economic headwinds has kept DG down over the past several months but not entirely out. The company’s store refresh plans may keep a lid on medium-term profitability, especially if tariffs present outsized challenges. However, DG remains a turnaround candidate: its deep rural/underserved footprint, combined with cleaner, more convenient stores, positions it to reaccelerate once economic conditions stabilize.
The Campbell's Company gyrates around its flatline today following Q3 results
Investors mostly shrug at Campbell Soup (CPB) today even though the company ladled out better-than-expected FY25 Q3 results. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.73 vs. $0.66 est., while revenue rose 4 % yr/yr to $2.48 bln vs. $2.43 bln est. Yet the stock is only up about ½ % in early trading and remains ~18 % lower YTD, suggesting the upside was already baked in after March’s guidance reset.
- Solid beat—but a lopsided one.
Meals & Beverages (soups, broths, Rao’s sauces) jumped +7 % thanks to an at-home-eating revival, while Snacks (Goldfish, Snyder’s pretzels) fell 5 %. The uneven mix leaves questions about the health of the snack portfolio just as Sovos integration costs peak. - Guidance still carries a ‘tariff asterisk.’
Management reaffirmed FY25 net-sales growth of 6-8 % but said adjusted EPS will likely hit the low end of the $2.95-$3.05 range, citing sluggish snack recovery and a 3-5 ¢ hit from aluminum-tariff pass-throughs. That caveat mutes the headline beat and keeps valuation in check. - Low bar after March reset.
Back in early March CPB trimmed its outlook (sales growth trimmed from 9-11 % to 6-8 %), knocking the stock 15 % over the next few weeks. Today’s in-line outlook merely stabilizes the narrative rather than igniting fresh enthusiasm.
Bottom line:
Campbell’s Q3 shows its core soup franchise simmering nicely, but snack softness and tariff-related margin caution limit the celebration. Unless the Snacks turnaround gains traction or management can nudge FY25 EPS back toward the midpoint of its range, CPB’s shares may remain range-bound despite the earnings beat.
Gap clipped by tariff fears as Q1 earnings beat is completely washed out
Gap Inc.’s latest quarter was a tale of solid top-line progress colliding with a jarring new cost curve. Fiscal 1Q 25 revenue inched 2 % higher to $3.5 bln and diluted EPS of $0.51 beat estimates by nearly twenty cents, helped by continued traffic gains at Old Navy and core Gap stores. Yet the upside was eclipsed by management’s stark warning that the Trump administration’s fresh tariff rounds could saddle the company with $250-$300 mln in incremental duties this fiscal year. After mitigation—mostly vendor cost sharing, country-of-origin shifts and selective price increases—the net hit to operating income is still pegged at $100-$150 mln, concentrated in the back half. Shares, up 45 % year-to-date into the print, promptly gave back more than 16 % as investors recalibrated the margin trajectory.
- Comp sales: Company‐wide comps rose +5 %, led by Old Navy at +7 %; Banana Republic (-3 %) and Athleta (-2 %) remained laggards.
- Digital mix: E-commerce grew 6 % and now represents ~40 % of sales, giving Gap some pricing flexibility as tariffs bite.
- Tariff math: Management’s base-case assumes the 25 % duties on Vietnamese and Indian apparel hold all year, layered on top of existing China levies; every 100 bps of additional duty would shave roughly $30 mln off EBIT.
- Sourcing diversification: CEO Richard Dickson stressed that product sourced from China dropped below 10 % in calendar 2024 and should fall further, while no single country will exceed 25 % by 2026—buffering future shocks.
- Guidance: FY25 EPS view stays at $2.05-2.25, but the range now explicitly embeds the $100-$150 mln tariff drag; 2Q sales are guided “roughly flat” as Banana and Athleta turnarounds continue.
- Balance sheet: Inventory dollars fell 14 % Y/Y, giving Gap room to chase trends without resorting to deep promotions if tariff-driven price tags pinch demand.
- Peer read-through: With Nike sourcing ~25 % of units from Vietnam and Abercrombie still >15 % China-exposed, the sector faces similar duty shocks—yet few have publicly quantified the hit as explicitly as Gap just did.
Bottom line: Gap just reminded the entire apparel complex that diversification is necessary but not sufficient when trade policy turns punitive. The company’s early work moving production out of China softens the blow, but a potential $0.25-0.35 EPS headwind forces investors to fade what had looked like an accelerating recovery story. If Old Navy keeps comping mid-single digits and tariff mitigation tracks to plan, the stock—now back near $18—could rebuild toward the mid-20s as early as holiday ’25. A wider tariff net or a stumble in the Banana/Athleta revamps, however, would likely cap any rally and keep apparel retailers trading defensively while Washington’s trade chess match plays out.
UiPath's Q1 report not as bumpy as expected, stock surges
UiPath’s 1Q FY26 report steadied the ship after March’s guidance scare: revenue grew 6 % Y/Y to $357 mn and non-GAAP EPS hit $0.11, topping the Street’s $0.10 view, while management nudged full-year targets higher — a quick vote of confidence in the new “agentic automation” roadmap.
- ARR climbed to $1.693 bn, up 12 % Y/Y, as customers expanded early deployments of Autopilot and Agent Builder.
- Q2 guide: revenue $345-350 mn vs. $333 mn consensus, implying a return to mid-single-digit sequential growth.
- FY26 outlook raised to $1.549-1.554 bn (from $1.525-1.530 bn) with management flagging improving U.S. federal traction after last quarter’s pause.
- Operating discipline held: $117 mn in FCF and a cash pile of $1.59 bn keep the balance-sheet fortress intact.
- Shares jumped ≈11 % to $14.34 in post-market trading as investors cheered the beat-and-raise, trimming a bruising YTD drawdown.
- Street still cautious: analysts highlight macro headwinds and the need to prove agentic AI upsell converts to faster ARR growth.
Bottom line: After resetting the bar two months ago, UiPath just cleared it convincingly. The beat, healthier pipeline commentary and fortified cash cushion suggest FY26 can re-accelerate toward the mid-teens growth path management targets. If ARR momentum holds and the new AI modules gain commercial traction, the stock — still well below last year’s highs despite the bounce — could grind back into the high-teens. A stumble on federal deals or a stall in agentic adoption, however, would likely keep PATH range-bound in the low-teens while investors wait for firmer proof of durable re-acceleration.
Dell heads higher on massive upside Q2 revenue guidance due to AI
Dell Technologies’ 1Q FY26 scorecard shows the AI boom moving from promise to purchase orders. Revenue of $23.4 bln edged past estimates, and management booked a record $12.1 bln of AI-server orders, swelling backlog to $14.4 bln. That demand allowed Dell to raise its full-year adjusted-EPS target to $9.40 (from $9.30) while leaving its $101-105 bln revenue outlook intact. Still, the mix shift toward expensive, lower-margin AI rigs clipped profitability—non-GAAP EPS was $1.55, shy of the $1.69 consensus—but investors looked through the miss, sending the stock up ~10 % after hours.
- Infrastructure Solutions Group sales jumped 12 % Y/Y to $10.3 bln, buoyed by AI-optimized PowerEdge servers; Client Solutions (PCs) grew 5 % to $12.5 bln, hinting at an early commercial refresh cycle.
- Dell guided 2Q revenue to $28.5-29.5 bln and EPS to $2.25, both ahead of Street models, implying sequential acceleration as AI server shipments ramp from backlog.
- Management acknowledged that “high build costs and stiff competition” are pressuring gross margin but sees leverage improving as volumes scale and component pricing eases later this year.
- The company kept tariff-risk language unchanged, noting it has flexibility to shift manufacturing footprints if Washington-Beijing tensions intensify.
- Capital returns stay aggressive: Dell already boosted its dividend 18 % in February and still has $10 bln left on its buyback authorization.
Bottom line: Dell’s AI engine is gaining thrust even as near-term margins sputter. With shares now back above $120, the market is discounting continued order conversion and a steadier cost curve; if backlog-to-shipment conversion proves smooth and PC demand stays positive, the stock could push toward the mid-$130s where it would trade ~14× the new EPS guide. A hiccup in AI server profitability—or fresh tariff shocks—would likely cap the move near current highs while investors wait for clearer margin visibility.
HP slashes its earnings outlook amid tariffs, spurs sell-off
HP’s Q2 FY25 report underscored a widening split between a modest PC rebound and tariff-driven cost pain. Revenue eked out a small beat at $13.22 bln, but elevated China-related levies and relocation expenses dragged adjusted EPS down to $0.71, well shy of the $0.80 street view. Management’s bigger blow came in guidance: full-year EPS was cut to $3.00-$3.30 and the July-quarter outlook (-$0.68-$0.80 EPS) trailed consensus, sending the stock 14 % lower in late trading. HP says nearly all North-American PCs will be built outside China by late June, yet admits those mitigation efforts will only fully offset tariffs by 4Q.
- Personal Systems sales grew 7 % Y/Y as commercial PC refresh picked up; Printing slipped 4 %, exposing margin pressure from lower supplies revenue.
- Revenue exceeded the $13.14 bln consensus by a hair, but EPS missed by 9 c as gross margin absorbed incremental freight, re-tooling and tariff costs.
- FY25 EPS guide trimmed from $3.45-$3.75 to $3.00-$3.30; HP targets cost offsets and “targeted price increases” to claw back ~$500 m in tariff impact by fiscal year-end.
- Q3 EPS range of $0.68-$0.80 versus the $0.90 street view implies another soft quarter before relief arrives.
- Peer Dell Technologies is leaning on AI-server demand and still projects FY26 EPS ~$9.30 despite its own tariff exposure, highlighting HP’s comparatively thinner AI leverage.
HPQ now trades near a single-digit forward P/E, and the capitulation move leaves shares technically oversold. Still, with tariffs unlikely to abate soon and Printing in structural decline, a durable re-rating probably waits on proof the PC cycle can outgrow cost headwinds and that price hikes stick. A base in the low-$20s seems plausible near-term; reclaiming the high-$20s will likely require cleaner margins by 4Q and evidence that commercial AI-PC refresh—not just Dell’s data-center build-out—can lift growth through 2026.
Best Buy enduring outsized selling amid tepid demand and tariff concerns in Q1
Best Buy’s Q1 FY26 print captured a familiar retail tug-of-war: disciplined cost controls helped the company beat on earnings, yet tepid demand and fresh tariff worries forced a trim to full-year guidance and sent the shares sliding roughly 5 % in early trading. Adjusted EPS of $1.15 topped the Street’s $1.09, but revenue of $8.77 bln missed by a hair and fell year-on-year, underlining how the big-ticket electronics cycle remains soft. Management now assumes the newly reinstated 10 % Trump-era tariffs linger all year, eroding pricing power just as consumers grow more value-conscious.
- Same-store sales declined 0.7 %, slightly worse than the –0.6 % consensus and the fourth straight quarterly drop.
- Imports from China still account for 30–35 % of cost of goods; CFO Matt Bilunas said promotional tweaks can blunt—but not offset—tariff-driven cost inflation.
- FY26 guidance cut: revenue now $41.1–$41.9 bln (was $41.4–$42.2 bln); adjusted EPS $6.15–$6.30 vs. $6.20–$6.60 prior; comp-sales view tightened to –1 % to +1 % from flat to +2 %.
- Management still expects comps to inflect positive in 2H as new phone and gaming console cycles arrive, but acknowledged “no material change” in consumer behavior so far.
- The stock, down ~17 % YTD and hovering near $70, trades at ~11× the midpoint of the new EPS range—well below its five-year average P/E of ~15.
- Dividend yield sits above 4 %, providing a cushion but limiting the buyback fire-power should tariffs bite deeper.
Bottom line: Best Buy remains a cash-generative retailer with a loyal membership base, but tariff exposure and a slow CE demand backdrop cap near-term upside. If Washington softens trade policy—or if holiday launches spark the long-awaited replacement cycle—the shares could rebound toward the mid-$80s (roughly 13× forward earnings). Absent relief, they are likely to meander in the $65–$75 channel while investors wait for clearer signals on comps and margin trajectory.
NVIDIA soars as light Q2 guidance shrugged off; trade restrictions capped revenue
NVIDIA’s 1Q FY26 scorecard was a study in contrasts: core AI demand powered revenue to a record $44.1 bln, yet geopolitical cross-winds forced a $4.5 bln write-down on China-bound inventory and lopped roughly $8 bln off what would have been blockbuster forward guidance. Strip out those China constraints and the quarter reaffirmed the company’s near-monopoly on cutting-edge compute, but the headline optics told a more complicated story.
- Revenue jumped 69 % Y/Y (-12 % Q/Q) with data-center sales up 73 % Y/Y to $39.1 bln, easily topping NVDA’s own outlook.
- GAAP EPS landed at $0.76; on a non-GAAP basis EPS was $0.81, but would have been $0.96 absent the inventory charge, well above consensus.
- Non-GAAP gross margin printed 61 %; normalizing for the charge lifts it to 71.3 %, consistent with prior cycles.
- Management guided 2Q revenue to $45 bln ± 2 %; adding back the embargoed H20 shipments implies >$53 bln, a trajectory the market never got to see.
- Huawei’s Ascend 910C, now ready for mass shipment, offers H100-like performance and threatens NVDA’s pared-down H20 in a market that was ~17 % of FY25 sales.
- Everywhere outside China, hyperscalers and sovereign AI programs “are buying every Blackwell we can make,” according to CEO Jensen Huang, keeping supply tight through at least calendar 2026.
Bottom line: NVDA’s underlying engine is still firing on all cylinders, but policy risk keeps the multiple on a short leash. If Washington offers even partial license relief—or if China demand proves sticky despite local substitutes—shares, now hovering just under $100, could reclaim the $110–$120 range in short order and press toward prior highs as the Blackwell ramp matures. Conversely, a protracted tech-trade standoff would likely cap the stock in the low-to-mid-90s while investors wait for visibility on Chinese revenue and margin normalization.