HP slashes its earnings outlook amid tariffs, spurs sell-off

HPQ, DELL

HP’s Q2 FY25 report underscored a widening split between a modest PC rebound and tariff-driven cost pain.  Revenue eked out a small beat at $13.22 bln, but elevated China-related levies and relocation expenses dragged adjusted EPS down to $0.71, well shy of the $0.80 street view.  Management’s bigger blow came in guidance: full-year EPS was cut to $3.00-$3.30 and the July-quarter outlook (-$0.68-$0.80 EPS) trailed consensus, sending the stock 14 % lower in late trading.  HP says nearly all North-American PCs will be built outside China by late June, yet admits those mitigation efforts will only fully offset tariffs by 4Q.

  • Personal Systems sales grew 7 % Y/Y as commercial PC refresh picked up; Printing slipped 4 %, exposing margin pressure from lower supplies revenue.
  • Revenue exceeded the $13.14 bln consensus by a hair, but EPS missed by 9 c as gross margin absorbed incremental freight, re-tooling and tariff costs.
  • FY25 EPS guide trimmed from $3.45-$3.75 to $3.00-$3.30; HP targets cost offsets and “targeted price increases” to claw back ~$500 m in tariff impact by fiscal year-end.
  • Q3 EPS range of $0.68-$0.80 versus the $0.90 street view implies another soft quarter before relief arrives.
  • Peer Dell Technologies is leaning on AI-server demand and still projects FY26 EPS ~$9.30 despite its own tariff exposure, highlighting HP’s comparatively thinner AI leverage.

HPQ now trades near a single-digit forward P/E, and the capitulation move leaves shares technically oversold.  Still, with tariffs unlikely to abate soon and Printing in structural decline, a durable re-rating probably waits on proof the PC cycle can outgrow cost headwinds and that price hikes stick.  A base in the low-$20s seems plausible near-term; reclaiming the high-$20s will likely require cleaner margins by 4Q and evidence that commercial AI-PC refresh—not just Dell’s data-center build-out—can lift growth through 2026.