Shoe Carnival Earnings Preview: High short interest name reporting tomorrow morning
May 29, 2025 12:05 PM
|
Consumer Discretionary
Shoe Carnival (SCVL) will release FY 2025 1Q results tomorrow, Friday May 30, before the open, with the call at 9:00 a.m. ET. Street consensus looks for EPS $0.30 on revenue ≈ $285 mn, versus $0.54 on $263 mn in 4Q. The stock has lost ~42 % YTD and now trades near a 7× forward P/E, yet bears still control the tape: roughly 25 % of the float—4.3 mn shares, 7.5 days to cover—is sold short, setting up a binary “beat-or-bleed” print.
Comp-sales bar is low. Same-store sales fell 6.3 % last quarter as traffic sagged; the Street models another low-single-digit drop, but any hint the long-stagnant family footwear cycle is bottoming could jolt sentiment.
Margin watch. Merchandise margin compressed 260 bp in 4Q on clearance activity; investors want evidence promotions moderated in early spring and that gross margin can return toward the 36 % pre-COVID level.
Tariffs & sourcing. Management previously guided FY25 revenue to $1.15-1.23 bn, citing tariff headwinds on China-made product. Color on spring landed-cost inflation—and whether vendors have absorbed any of it—will shape the FY25 outlook.
Store strategy update. More than 175 legacy doors are being re-branded to the higher-ticket Shoe Station format this year; progress on merchandising, ticket lift, and incremental traffic will matter for the multiple.
Peer thermometer. Footwear peer Skechers grew sales 7 % in its April quarter but pulled FY25 guidance on trade-policy risk, underscoring how fragile sentiment is across the space.
Technical fuel. With shares sitting just above the $19 March low and shorts crowded, an upside surprise on comps or gross margin could spark a short-covering rally; conversely, another guide-down would likely push the chart to fresh 52-week lows.
Setup: Expectations are muted and positioning skewed bearish; even a modest beat and steady FY25 guide could unlock a relief bid back into the low-$20s. Miss the comp or margin marks, though, and the bears’ 25 % short stake could press the stock into the mid-teens while management works through inventory and tariff noise.
.gif)
Shoe Carnival Earnings Preview: High short interest name reporting tomorrow morning
Shoe Carnival (SCVL) will release FY 2025 1Q results tomorrow, Friday May 30, before the open, with the call at 9:00 a.m. ET. Street consensus looks for EPS $0.30 on revenue ≈ $285 mn, versus $0.54 on $263 mn in 4Q. The stock has lost ~42 % YTD and now trades near a 7× forward P/E, yet bears still control the tape: roughly 25 % of the float—4.3 mn shares, 7.5 days to cover—is sold short, setting up a binary “beat-or-bleed” print.
Setup: Expectations are muted and positioning skewed bearish; even a modest beat and steady FY25 guide could unlock a relief bid back into the low-$20s. Miss the comp or margin marks, though, and the bears’ 25 % short stake could press the stock into the mid-teens while management works through inventory and tariff noise.