Costco Earnings Preview: April comps slowed; investors watch for potential momentum pick-up in May
May 29, 2025 11:53 AM
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Consumer Staples
Costco Wholesale (COST) will post fiscal 3Q25 (twelve weeks ended May 4) results after today’s close, with the earnings call slated for 5:00 pm ET (2:00 pm PT). Wall Street is looking for EPS of $4.24 (+14 % yr/yr) on revenue of $63.1 bln (+8 %), and expects a roughly 6 % comp-sales lift for the quarter.
Same-store‐sales cadence: April comps slowed to +5.2 % U.S. (+6.7 % ex-fuel/FX) after running high-single-digits in February–March, so investors will watch whether May regained momentum or confirmed a down-shift.
Membership-fee tailwind: Last September’s first fee hike since 2017 (Gold Star to $65, Executive to $130) keeps the highest-margin line item humming; consensus models fee income up ~9 % with total paid household memberships rising to ~79.7 m. Renewal rates (U.S./Canada 92 %+) will be scrutinized.
Tariff chatter: Unlike branded-goods peers, Costco’s diversified sourcing and scale-driven vendor pressure have muted tariff impact so far, but management commentary on incremental freight or private-label shifts could sway margin expectations.
Special-capital actions: With the share price north of $1,000, speculation is building for either a stock split (last one in 2000) or another special dividend—the board typically addresses both on earnings day.
Tech & traffic: Investors will listen for updates on AI-assisted self-checkout and Costco Next marketplace, plus color on the new Affirm financing partnership and still-hot gold-bar sales, all incremental drivers of ticket and digital mix.
Peer check: Walmart logged +4 % sales / +5 % EPS in its May-15 print, while BJ’s comps ex-fuel grew +3.9 % last week—solid but below Costco’s YTD run-rate, setting a high bar for COST to defend its premium multiple.
Setup: COST has rallied ~11 % YTD and trades at ~56× forward earnings, so the market is pricing a clean beat and confident tone on traffic, tariffs, and membership momentum. Anything less—and especially a further decel in May comps—could spark some profit-taking, but a reaffirmation of high-single-digit comps plus upbeat color on capital returns would likely keep the stock pushing fresh highs.
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Costco Earnings Preview: April comps slowed; investors watch for potential momentum pick-up in May
Costco Wholesale (COST) will post fiscal 3Q25 (twelve weeks ended May 4) results after today’s close, with the earnings call slated for 5:00 pm ET (2:00 pm PT). Wall Street is looking for EPS of $4.24 (+14 % yr/yr) on revenue of $63.1 bln (+8 %), and expects a roughly 6 % comp-sales lift for the quarter.
Setup: COST has rallied ~11 % YTD and trades at ~56× forward earnings, so the market is pricing a clean beat and confident tone on traffic, tariffs, and membership momentum. Anything less—and especially a further decel in May comps—could spark some profit-taking, but a reaffirmation of high-single-digit comps plus upbeat color on capital returns would likely keep the stock pushing fresh highs.